Geographia Technica, Vol 22, Issue 1, 2027, pp. 149-159
SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF URBAN EXPANSION IN MAGELANG CITY AND ITS PERI-URBAN AREAS (2013-2031): A SHANNON ENTROPY AND CA-MARKOV APPROACH
Hasna Rafifa BALQIS 
, Iswari Nur HIDAYATI , Bowo SUSILO
ABSTRACT: Built-up land is the land-use category undergoing the most rapid change and therefore requires attention. It is important to monitor and predict the future expansion of built-up land in order to minimize uncontrolled urban expansion. This study aims to monitor, identify patterns, and predict the future built-up land expansion. The results show that there was an increase in built-up land in Magelang City and its peri-urban areas during 2013 to 2025, from 2,674.35 ha to 3,483.81 ha, with the most dominant direction of expansion being towards the north-east and south. Identification of built-up land expansion patterns using Shannon Entropy indicates that the development of built-up land is dispersed, with values remaining relatively stable from year to year. Prediction of built-up land was carried out using driving factors, with the greatest influence coming from the distance to existing built-up land, while the smallest influence came from the distance to commercial facilities. The research results show that the area of built-up land in 2031 is estimated to reach 3,622.41 ha, representing an increase of 138.60 ha compared to 2025. The rate of increase in built-up land is 3.9 %, with an average annual growth rate of 0.66 %/year. The area projected to experience the greatest increase in built-up land area is Mertoyudan Sub-district. Meanwhile, North Magelang and Central Magelang Sub-districts are not projected to experience any increase in built-up land area. The direction of built-up land development is predicted to be predominantly southwards, with a constant Shannon entropy value.
Keywords: built-up land; expansion; Shannon entropy; prediction; cellular automata
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