Geographia Technica, Vol 21, Issue 2, 2026, pp. 16-32
GIS-BASED WILDFIRE RISK ASSESSMENT IN A MEDITERRANEAN PROTECTED AREA: A MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS OF DAJTI NATIONAL PARK, ALBANIA
Sonila PAPATHIMIU 
, Adelajda HALILI , Fioralba SULA
ABSTRACT: Wildfires represent a major environmental threat in Mediterranean landscapes, particularly within protected mountainous areas where complex topography, vegetation patterns, climatic variability, and increasing human pressure interact. In this context, spatially explicit fire risk assessment is essential for effective prevention planning and sustainable ecosystem management. This study presents a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis for forest fire risk assessment in Dajti National Park, Albania. A comprehensive set of spatial factors was integrated, including terrain slope, aspect, land cover and land use, vegetation density derived from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and proximity to roads and settlements. Each factor was processed as a thematic raster layer and reclassified into standardized fire susceptibility classes ranging from very low to very high risk. The layers were subsequently combined using a weighted overlay approach to generate a composite wildfire susceptibility index. The resulting forest fire risk map reveals that moderate to high-risk zones dominate the study area, particularly in sectors characterized by steep terrain, dense or degraded vegetation cover, elevated temperatures, lower precipitation, higher wind exposure, and close proximity to infrastructure. Very high-risk zones are mainly concentrated along peripheral areas and access corridors, where anthropogenic influence overlaps with favorable natural conditions for fire ignition and spread. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of GIS-based multi-criteria analysis as a robust decision-support tool for forest wildfire susceptibility zoning in protected areas. The proposed methodological framework supports the identification of priority zones for fire prevention and management measures and is transferable to other Mediterranean and mountainous environments facing similar wildfire challenges.
Keywords: Wildfire risk; GIS; Weighted overlay; NDVI; Multi-Criteria analysis; Protected areas; Disaster risk reduction.
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