Geographia Technica, Vol 21, Issue 2, 2026, pp. 1-15
TOURISM REVENUE DYNAMICS IN XINJIANG: A SPATIO-ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF SCALE, MOBILITY, AND REGIONAL STRUCTURE
Imanaly AKBAR 
, Bahaerguli NULAHEMAIT , Gulnar KUBESSOVA , Altynbay SAULEMBAYEV , Zabira MYRZALIYEVA , Zhannat ALIYEVA , Bauyrzhan PAZYLKHAIYR , Gulden YRYSBAY
ABSTRACT: Against the backdrop of China’s rapid economic development, Xinjiang’s tourism sector has experienced substantial growth, emerging as an important engine of regional development. This study employs a theory-grounded econometric model to systematically evaluate the key determinants of tourism revenue in Xinjiang using annual data from 2009 to 2020. Integrating tourism demand theory and destination competitiveness frameworks, the analysis examines Total Tourism Revenue (Y) in relation to five explanatory variables: Tourist Volume (X₁), Passenger Traffic (X₂), Tourist Person-Days (X₃), Tourist Mobility Intensity (X₄), and Inbound Overnight Visitors (X₅). Initial regression diagnostics reveal severe multicollinearity among the explanatory variables, which is addressed through a stepwise regression approach. The refined model identifies Tourist Volume (β = 1.108, p < 0.001) and Tourist Mobility Intensity (β = 0.409, p < 0.001) as the dominant and statistically significant predictors of tourism revenue, jointly explaining 91% of the variance (Adjusted R² = 0.91). These findings indicate that Xinjiang’s tourism economy remains primarily scale-driven and mobility-dependent. However, the results also expose critical structural inefficiencies. While tourist arrivals increased by 89.8% between 2009 and 2019, tourist person-days declined sharply by 71.5%, reflecting significantly shortened stays and weakened visitor engagement. Moreover, the observed negative correlation between tourism revenue and passenger traffic suggests potential infrastructural pressures and inefficiencies in transport utilization. Together, these patterns reveal a fundamental contradiction between quantitative expansion and qualitative depth, raising concerns regarding environmental pressure and limited per-capita value capture. The study concludes that Xinjiang must transition from a volume-based tourism growth model toward a quality-centered development pathway. This shift requires optimizing transport efficiency, extending visitor stays through enhanced cultural and ecological experiences, diversifying tourism products, and promoting sustainable tourism practices to support resilient, inclusive, and long-term regional development.
Keywords: Econometric Modeling, Structural Transformation; Tourism Revenue; Tourist Mobility; Spatial Interaction; Regional Heterogeneity; Xinjiang.
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